Kamala Harris’ Democratic Nomination Odds Surge on Polymarket

Supporters are urging Vice President Kamala Harris to step up following President Biden’s shaky debate performance.

Kamala Harris’ chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president this year surged more than fourfold on Tuesday, according to Polymarket, the fast-growing crypto-based prediction market platform.

Shares betting “Yes” on her nomination traded as high as 31 cents in the afternoon, New York time, reflecting a 31% chance, up from 7% earlier that day. The shares later pulled back to 23 cents.

Each share pays out $1 in USDC (a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar) if the prediction is correct and zero if not.

While President Joe Biden remains the presumptive Democratic nominee, many supporters are calling for him to step aside, favoring Harris after his poor debate showing against former President Donald Trump.

“We should do everything we can to support her, whether it’s for VP or the top of the ticket,” said Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C, on television Tuesday.

A Newsweek op-ed by former Congressman Tim Ryan bluntly stated, “Kamala Harris Should Be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2024.” The Wall Street Journal analysis labeled Harris as “Biden’s Likeliest Replacement.”

Similarly, on PredictIt, a traditional prediction market where bets are settled in dollars, “Yes” shares for Harris more than doubled to 35 cents. PredictIt’s total volume for the Democratic nomination question is $31 million, compared to Polymarket’s $75 million.

Polymarket, restricted from U.S. operations under a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, saw its fifth-largest trading day on Tuesday with $5.7 million, according to Dune Analytics. June marked Polymarket’s first month surpassing $100 million in volume.

Polymarket’s largest contract, with $211 million in bets, focuses on the November U.S. presidential election, where Trump is the favorite with a 66% chance of winning.

In related news, KAMA, a meme coin named after Harris, more than doubled in price on Tuesday, reaching $0.007815.