Stablecoin Deals and Bitcoin Reserves: Wintermute’s 2025 Predictions

What to Know

• Wintermute predicts that China, the UAE, and Europe may follow the U.S. in establishing strategic Bitcoin reserves.
• OTC trading volumes at Wintermute grew 313% in 2024, reflecting explosive institutional interest.
• Crypto is expected to integrate more deeply into traditional finance through ETFs and corporate holdings.

Crypto Integration with TradFi Expected to Deepen in 2025

Crypto-trading firm Wintermute has outlined bold predictions for 2025, signaling a year of significant strides in institutional crypto adoption and integration with traditional finance (TradFi). In its annual review and outlook, the firm forecasts major geopolitical and corporate movements centered on Bitcoin and stablecoins.

Key among these is the expectation that the U.S. will initiate consultations to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, potentially prompting similar actions from China, the UAE, and Europe. Such reserves could mark a milestone in Bitcoin’s adoption as a global financial asset.

Surge in OTC Trading and Institutional Demand

Wintermute’s report highlights substantial growth in over-the-counter (OTC) trading volumes, which soared by an impressive 313% in 2024. This surge followed the regulatory approval of Bitcoin ETFs in January and later Ether ETFs, which bolstered demand for capital-efficient trading.

The average OTC trade size rose by 17%, and Wintermute recorded its largest-ever single-day OTC trading volume at $2.24 billion, surpassing 2023’s weekly record of $2 billion.

The growth wasn’t limited to spot trading. Derivatives volumes also increased by over 300%, driven by institutions seeking sophisticated yield and risk management instruments such as CFDs and options.

Shifts in Asset Preferences and Market Trends

Wintermute observed evolving preferences among institutional traders, with memecoins becoming a surprise success story in 2024. Their market share more than doubled to 16%, driven primarily by tokens in the Solana ecosystem like dogwifhat (WIF), bonk (BONK), and ponke (PONKE).

Despite this trend, Ether (ETH) continues to dominate institutional interest, with the report predicting that a publicly listed company will sell debt or shares to acquire ETH, following in MicroStrategy’s footsteps with Bitcoin.

Crypto Meets Corporate Finance

Wintermute envisions a groundbreaking corporate event in 2025, where a significant acquisition or merger will be settled entirely in stablecoins. This move would mark a pivotal integration of crypto into global financial infrastructure, further blurring the lines between digital and traditional finance.

Additionally, the firm predicts that a systemically important bank will offer spot cryptocurrency trading to its clients, signaling a deeper acceptance of digital assets within the banking sector.

CEO’s Vision: A Maturing Market

Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy emphasized the maturation of the crypto market, stating, “We saw record-breaking growth driven by demand for sophisticated products like CFDs and options, reflecting a maturing market that increasingly mirrors traditional finance.”

He added that the momentum will only increase as crypto integrates deeper into global finance through ETFs, corporate holdings, tokenization, and the expansion of structured financial products.