Trump-Harris Debate: Slim Odds of Crypto Mention in Presidential Showdown

As the 2024 U.S. presidential race intensifies, the first debate between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris is set to take place. While topics like abortion and the economy are expected to dominate the conversation, the chances of cryptocurrency being mentioned remain low. According to prediction markets like Polymarket, the odds that either candidate will mention “crypto” or “bitcoin” are slim, but there’s still a possibility that digital assets could make a surprise appearance.

Polymarket Odds: Will Trump or Harris Mention Crypto?

On Polymarket, a prediction platform, traders have been speculating on the likelihood of crypto-related mentions during the debate. As of Tuesday, shares for the chance of Donald Trump saying “crypto” or “bitcoin” were trading at 17 cents, suggesting a 17% probability. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has even slimmer odds, with a 13% chance of referencing the digital asset space during the debate.

Polymarket works by allowing users to buy shares on predictions, with each share paying out $1 worth of cryptocurrency if the prediction is correct. If the outcome does not materialize, the shares become worthless. For this debate, cryptocurrency is a long shot behind hot-button issues like “abortion,” which is expected to be mentioned with an 83% probability by Trump.

Trump’s Crypto Strategy vs. Harris’ Approach

Donald Trump has actively engaged with the cryptocurrency community in his campaign, positioning himself as an advocate for making the U.S. a crypto-friendly nation. His vocal support has attracted crypto donations and voters, with many in the industry hoping that his administration would favor policies that foster innovation in digital assets and blockchain technology.

In contrast, Kamala Harris’ campaign has been more muted on the topic of crypto. The Biden administration, under which Harris serves, has taken a stricter regulatory stance, with many in the crypto industry viewing it as hostile. Despite this, Harris’ campaign has acknowledged the growing importance of digital currencies but has not made any major policy announcements related to the space.

Crypto Prediction Markets: A Growing Trend in Elections

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Manifold allow traders to bet on a variety of outcomes, from political events to entertainment. Proponents argue that these platforms provide more accurate forecasting than traditional polling methods, as users put real money on the line, incentivizing them to research and make honest predictions.

On Polymarket, traders can bet on the likelihood of certain words or phrases being said during the debate. Alongside “crypto” and “bitcoin,” other terms like “Comrade Kamala” and “abortion” are considered much more likely to be spoken by Trump, with odds of 40% and 83%, respectively.

Kamala Harris’ likelihood of mentioning crypto is significantly lower, with abortion being the top predicted topic at 87% odds, followed by a 58% chance of calling Trump a “convicted felon.” The gap in crypto-related mentions highlights the contrasting views of the candidates when it comes to the future of digital assets in the U.S.

Polymarket’s Record Day of Trading Amidst Election Betting Surge

Prediction markets have gained significant traction during the 2024 election cycle. Despite regulatory challenges, Polymarket has seen a surge in trading activity, especially surrounding the debate. On Friday, the platform hit its highest-ever trading volume of $34 million, according to Dune Analytics. This growth comes despite restrictions on U.S. traders, many of whom could be using VPNs to circumvent the platform’s block.

Other platforms like Manifold, a “play money” prediction market, have also seen an increase in election-related bets. On Manifold, the odds of “bitcoin” being mentioned during the debate are hovering around 12%, slightly ahead of less likely phrases like “unburdened” (8%) and “coconut” (6%). While these bets are not made with real currency, the platform allows users to gain a reputation for accurate forecasting.

Will Crypto Get a Mention in the Debate?

As the Trump-Harris debate approaches, the odds of cryptocurrency becoming a central topic remain low. However, with Trump’s vocal support for the industry and Harris’ stance on regulatory matters, it’s possible that digital currencies could still come up, even if briefly. Whether or not crypto gets the spotlight, the broader adoption and regulatory future of digital assets will continue to play a critical role in U.S. economic policy.

For traders and crypto enthusiasts watching the debate, a mention of Bitcoin or blockchain could signal how the future administration plans to handle the rapidly evolving digital asset space.